Tariffs and Tech: Retail Supply Chains Enter a New Era of Uncertainty

The latest wave of Trump-era tariffs is pushing retail supply chains back into crisis mode. This time, it’s not just China — major trading partners like Canada, the EU, and even Vietnam are facing steep new duties. Retailers are scrambling to adapt in real time, caught between front-loading goods, rerouting suppliers, and bracing for retaliatory blows.

“The tariff playbook has gone from chess to dodgeball — and supply chains are ducking fast,” said Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, ahead of the company’s April 9 market update.

The newly announced measures have rapidly reshaped sourcing dynamics. Beyond a new global 10% tariff, reciprocal tariffs of up to 34% now apply to Chinese goods — stacking atop previously imposed Trump- and Biden-era duties. In total, some Chinese-origin products are now facing over 70% in tariffs.

“This dwarfs Trump’s first administration tariff initiatives both in scope and degree,” Levine said. “And it’s not just China. Many countries that once looked like safe alternatives are now on the list.”

Retail importers reacted quickly. With the first batch of retaliatory tariffs kicking in April 9, many shippers rushed to load and clear goods. Freightos reported moderate rate bumps — Asia–US West Coast container prices rose 3% to $2,246/FEU, while China–North America air cargo dipped 3% to $5.48/kg — likely a reflection of pre-tariff volume pushes.

But that volume spike may now reverse.

“Given the uncertainty and the volumes frontloaded since November, we’re likely to see a significant drop in container demand,” Levine said. “Some fear a rate collapse like what we saw after the 2008 financial crisis.”

A second inflection point looms: the May 3 cancellation of the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods. The policy had allowed goods under $800 in value to enter the U.S. duty-free — a vital channel for e-commerce retailers shipping B2C orders by air from China.

“The de minimis exemption has been a big driver of the surge of B2C e-commerce goods going by air from China to the US,” Levine explained. “Its cancellation is expected to lead to a sharp drop in China–US air cargo demand and rates.”

In the face of this volatility, logistics leaders are turning to data transparency and spend control to manage uncertainty. That’s where Cinch, an AI-powered logistics platform, has become increasingly relevant — helping retailers surface hidden costs, detect billing errors, and make faster, more accurate shipping decisions. In a written reply to The Supply Chainer, Rebecca Weiss @Cinch explained:

“Cinch’s AI captures data in real time from any source—like emails, ERPs, and TMS systems—providing insights into freight spend, comparing quotes and invoices, and flagging billing errors. With Cinch, logistics managers can reduce shipping costs by making data-driving decisions and reduce manual labour, all with minimal IT involvement.”

“Cinch helped a well-known fashion brand reduce its shipping spend by 10.6% in under a year, directly boosting its margins. One key factor: with Cinch, the brand discovered that 15% of its logistics budget came from unexpected charges. In another case, a customer at an FMCG company achieved an 80% reduction in manual data entry by eliminating reliance on siloed emails.”

Weiss added:

“We’ve helped companies go from guessing about logistics costs to seeing them in real time. Especially now, clarity equals margin.”

While policymakers debate the long-term trade landscape, operations teams have to make decisions today. With shifting tariff rules, retaliations, and customs volatility, having real-time logistics intelligence is quickly becoming a baseline requirement — not a luxury.